If an event is Poisson then it has the property that if you know the average number of times it’s expected to occur over a given time interval, then you can estimate the probability of the event occurring any number of times. The events underlying certain proposition bets of the form “How many … ?” follow what is known as the Poisson distribution. Since you’d only be laying -115 on the bet your edge would be positive.
We see that the probability of hitting the under (“Less than 15½”) is 54.7611%, corresponding to a fair money line of -121.05 Solution:Select “One Variable” radio buttonĮnter 15.2 into “Expected Average” text box You think that the based on historical averages the expected number of Knicks 3pt attempts is actually 15.2. Let’s say a book is offering up a prop bet on an event you to believe to be Poisson - let’s say the number of 3-point attempts made by the Knicks in a particular game.
